For Alfreton Town, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Alfreton Town conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
36 Chorley
1:0
+56
05/10
Home
38 Hereford
0:0
+36
21/09
Away
34 Kidderminster Harriers
1:0
+66
07/09
Home
31 Scarborough Athletic
1:1
+26
03/09
Away
28 Darlington
0:0
+31
31/08
Home
22 Farsley Celtic
2:1
+31
26/08
Away
24 Needham Market
2:0
+67
24/08
Home
37 Chester
2:2
+28
Similarly, for Spennymoor Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Away
22 Farsley Celtic
3:0
+133
05/10
Home
34 Kidderminster Harriers
1:1
+31
21/09
Away
23 Warrington Town
1:1
+26
07/09
Home
38 Hereford
0:0
+32
03/09
Away
14 Radcliffe
4:2
+44
31/08
Away
28 Darlington
0:1
+24
26/08
Home
28 Brackley Town
2:2
+19
24/08
Away
20 Rushall Olympic
1:2
+16
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 340 points to the home team and 326 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Alfreton Town) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.18% of victories for the team Alfreton Town occurred in home matches. For the team Spennymoor Town this indicator is 64.06%. On average, this equates to 61.12%, suggesting a slight advantage for Alfreton Town all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town 58.18%
Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town 64.06%
Average
Average 61.12%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.12% of the home team's points and 38.88% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Alfreton Town with an advantage of 208 points against 127. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.12% to 37.88%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.33% with a coefficient of 3.53. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.46, and for the away team's victory it is 3.22. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.71%, and the away team's victory - 43.3%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Alfreton Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.09%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.46, while in reality, it should be 2.25.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.46
3.53
3.22
Our calculation
2.25
3.53
3.68
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.46
2024 October
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England. National League North
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ROI +18.11%
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