For Adelaide Raiders Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Adelaide Raiders Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
23/07
Away
33 Para Hills Knights Reserves
2:5
+3
16/07
Home
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
0:2
+4
13/07
Away
19 FK Beograd Reserves
1:2
+16
22/06
Away
49 Adelaide City Reserves
0:4
+2
15/06
Home
6 South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
10:0
+29
08/06
Away
29 Adelaide Olympic Reserves
0:2
+4
01/06
Home
23 Metrostars Reserves
0:4
+1
25/05
Away
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
3:3
+32
Similarly, for Campbelltown City Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
19 FK Beograd Reserves
2:1
+34
13/07
Away
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
4:0
+187
08/07
Home
49 Adelaide City Reserves
0:0
+51
22/06
Away
6 South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
3:1
+18
15/06
Home
29 Adelaide Olympic Reserves
1:0
+43
08/06
Away
23 Metrostars Reserves
5:0
+109
01/06
Home
45 Croydon Kings Reserves
1:0
+73
25/05
Home
46 Adelaide United Reserves
3:2
+60
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 91 points to the home team and 576 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Adelaide Raiders Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.62% of victories for the team Adelaide Raiders Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Campbelltown City Reserves this indicator is 55.88%. On average, this equates to 54.75%, suggesting a slight advantage for Adelaide Raiders Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Adelaide Raiders Reserves
Adelaide Raiders Reserves 53.62%
Campbelltown City Reserves
Campbelltown City Reserves 55.88%
Average
Average 54.75%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.75% of the home team's points and 45.25% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Campbelltown City Reserves with an advantage of 261 points against 50. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 83.89% to 16.11%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.05% with a coefficient of 4.75. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.14, and for the away team's victory it is 1.68. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 24.64%, and the away team's victory - 75.37%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Campbelltown City Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.01%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.68, while in reality, it should be 1.51.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
5.14
4.75
1.68
Our calculation
7.86
4.75
1.51
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
1.68
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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