For Adelaide Cobras, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Adelaide Cobras conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
15 Adelaide Victory
3:0
+89
13/07
Away
17 Western Strikers
3:2
+37
09/07
Home
33 Salisbury United
3:2
+49
21/06
Away
42 West Torrens Birkalla
0:3
+4
15/06
Away
27 West Adelaide
0:3
+2
08/06
Away
26 Vipers
1:1
+28
01/06
Home
31 Fulham United
2:0
+75
25/05
Away
46 Playford City Patriots
2:0
+121
Similarly, for Cumberland United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
17 Western Strikers
3:2
+25
13/07
Away
33 Salisbury United
1:3
+6
29/06
Home
42 West Torrens Birkalla
3:0
+163
22/06
Away
27 West Adelaide
2:1
+52
15/06
Home
26 Vipers
1:0
+28
08/06
Away
31 Fulham United
1:0
+53
01/06
Home
46 Playford City Patriots
1:4
+2
25/05
Away
29 Sturt Lions
0:1
+24
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 405 points to the home team and 354 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Adelaide Cobras) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.22% of victories for the team Adelaide Cobras occurred in home matches. For the team Cumberland United this indicator is 65.15%. On average, this equates to 60.19%, suggesting a slight advantage for Adelaide Cobras all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras 55.22%
Cumberland United
Cumberland United 65.15%
Average
Average 60.19%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.19% of the home team's points and 39.81% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Adelaide Cobras with an advantage of 244 points against 141. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.37% to 36.63%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.75% with a coefficient of 4.04. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.68, and for the away team's victory it is 2.64. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.58%, and the away team's victory - 50.42%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Adelaide Cobras's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.47%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.68, while in reality, it should be 2.1.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.68
4.04
2.64
Our calculation
2.1
4.04
3.63
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.68
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. South Australia. State League 1
QUANTITY 174
ROI +49.95%
EARNINGS +$8691
USA. MLS
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