For Adelaide City Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Adelaide City Reserves conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
23/07
Away
46 Adelaide United Reserves
2:0
+152
13/07
Home
33 Modbury Jets Reserves
4:0
+181
08/07
Away
48 Campbelltown City Reserves
0:0
+52
22/06
Home
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
4:0
+121
15/06
Away
19 FK Beograd Reserves
1:0
+29
08/06
Home
30 Adelaide Comets Reserves
3:2
+43
01/06
Home
33 Para Hills Knights Reserves
1:3
+4
25/05
Away
6 South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
6:0
+24
Similarly, for Croydon Kings Reserves, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
6 South Adelaide Panthers Reserves
1:0
+13
13/07
Away
29 Adelaide Olympic Reserves
3:0
+138
29/06
Home
23 Metrostars Reserves
4:2
+80
22/06
Home
33 Para Hills Knights Reserves
4:4
+38
15/06
Away
46 Adelaide United Reserves
2:1
+67
08/06
Home
33 Modbury Jets Reserves
2:3
+26
01/06
Away
48 Campbelltown City Reserves
0:1
+29
25/05
Home
23 Adelaide Raiders Reserves
3:3
+22
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 606 points to the home team and 412 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Adelaide City Reserves) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 49.25% of victories for the team Adelaide City Reserves occurred in home matches. For the team Croydon Kings Reserves this indicator is 34.92%. On average, this equates to 42.09%, suggesting a slight advantage for Adelaide City Reserves all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Adelaide City Reserves
Adelaide City Reserves 49.25%
Croydon Kings Reserves
Croydon Kings Reserves 34.92%
Average
Average 42.09%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 42.09% of the home team's points and 57.91% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Adelaide City Reserves with an advantage of 255 points against 238. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.69% to 48.31%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.27% with a coefficient of 4.12. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.25, and for the away team's victory it is 3.21. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.82%, and the away team's victory - 41.18%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Croydon Kings Reserves's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.13%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.21, while in reality, it should be 2.73.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.25
4.12
3.21
Our calculation
2.55
4.12
2.73
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.21
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
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