For Zlin, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Zlin conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Home
31 Opava
3:0
+131
06/10
Away
18 Varnsdorf
2:0
+72
28/09
Home
23 Sparta Prague B
2:0
+45
22/09
Away
22 Banik Ostrava B
1:0
+44
17/09
Home
26 Slavia Prague B
2:1
+29
01/09
Away
17 Zbrojovka Brno
2:1
+31
16/08
Away
29 Vlasim
3:1
+88
09/08
Home
33 Viktoria Zizkov
1:0
+35
Similarly, for Vysocina Jihlava, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Home
18 Varnsdorf
1:1
+14
06/10
Away
22 Banik Ostrava B
2:1
+48
29/09
Away
26 Slavia Prague B
0:2
+5
23/09
Home
29 Vlasim
2:2
+23
30/08
Home
33 Viktoria Zizkov
2:1
+42
23/08
Away
27 Prostejov
1:2
+25
16/08
Home
25 Lisen
2:2
+19
11/08
Away
31 Sigma Olomouc B
1:3
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 474 points to the home team and 182 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Zlin) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.38% of victories for the team Zlin occurred in home matches. For the team Vysocina Jihlava this indicator is 65.52%. On average, this equates to 62.95%, suggesting a slight advantage for Zlin all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Zlin
Zlin 60.38%
Vysocina Jihlava
Vysocina Jihlava 65.52%
Average
Average 62.95%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.95% of the home team's points and 37.05% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Zlin with an advantage of 299 points against 67. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 81.58% to 18.42%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.76% with a coefficient of 5.33. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.42, and for the away team's victory it is 9.21. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 86.64%, and the away team's victory - 13.36%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Vysocina Jihlava's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.62%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 9.21, while in reality, it should be 6.68.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.42
5.33
9.21
Our calculation
1.51
5.33
6.68
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
9.21
2024 October
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Previous week
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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