For York City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team York City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
10 Ebbsfleet United
4:0
+51
05/10
Away
25 Woking
1:1
+27
28/09
Home
32 Eastleigh
0:0
+30
24/09
Away
30 Solihull Moors
3:0
+129
21/09
Away
26 Aldershot Town
0:0
+28
14/09
Home
19 AFC Fylde
3:0
+72
10/09
Home
20 Braintree Town
2:1
+27
07/09
Away
13 Wealdstone
2:0
+34
Similarly, for Barnet, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
30 Solihull Moors
3:4
+28
05/10
Home
15 Boston United
3:1
+44
28/09
Home
19 AFC Fylde
2:0
+48
24/09
Away
26 Aldershot Town
1:0
+52
21/09
Away
13 Wealdstone
3:0
+69
14/09
Home
20 Braintree Town
3:1
+44
10/09
Home
29 Altrincham
2:1
+33
07/09
Away
42 Gateshead
0:2
+6
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 399 points to the home team and 323 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (York City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.02% of victories for the team York City occurred in home matches. For the team Barnet this indicator is 61.77%. On average, this equates to 56.39%, suggesting a slight advantage for York City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
York City
York City 51.02%
Barnet
Barnet 61.77%
Average
Average 56.39%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.39% of the home team's points and 43.61% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is York City with an advantage of 225 points against 141. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 61.49% to 38.51%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.67% with a coefficient of 3.75. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.76, and for the away team's victory it is 2.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.5%, and the away team's victory - 50.5%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of York City's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.79%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.76, while in reality, it should be 2.22.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.76
3.75
2.7
Our calculation
2.22
3.75
3.54
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.76
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
England. National League
QUANTITY 802
ROI +8.23%
EARNINGS +$6600
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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