For Wigan Athletic, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Wigan Athletic conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
10 Cambridge United
0:2
+2
05/10
Away
38 Stockport County
0:0
+46
01/10
Home
27 Peterborough United
3:0
+108
28/09
Home
40 Exeter City
0:0
+36
24/09
Home
32 Stevenage
0:0
+25
21/09
Away
38 Lincoln City
0:0
+37
14/09
Away
25 Bristol Rovers
4:0
+128
31/08
Away
52 Birmingham City
1:2
+40
Similarly, for Mansfield Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
32 Stevenage
0:1
+26
05/10
Home
30 Blackpool
2:0
+84
01/10
Away
14 Crawley Town
2:0
+41
28/09
Away
23 Northampton Town
2:0
+71
21/09
Home
16 Shrewsbury Town
2:1
+24
14/09
Home
10 Cambridge United
2:1
+13
31/08
Home
38 Stockport County
1:1
+33
24/08
Away
38 Lincoln City
1:4
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 421 points to the home team and 296 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Wigan Athletic) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.71% of victories for the team Wigan Athletic occurred in home matches. For the team Mansfield Town this indicator is 46.67%. On average, this equates to 53.69%, suggesting a slight advantage for Wigan Athletic all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Wigan Athletic
Wigan Athletic 60.71%
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town 46.67%
Average
Average 53.69%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.69% of the home team's points and 46.31% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Wigan Athletic with an advantage of 226 points against 137. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.29% to 37.71%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.09% with a coefficient of 3.56. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.47, and for the away team's victory it is 3.18. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.34%, and the away team's victory - 43.66%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Wigan Athletic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.84%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.47, while in reality, it should be 2.23.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.47
3.56
3.18
Our calculation
2.23
3.56
3.69
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.47
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
England. League 1
QUANTITY 744
ROI +8.22%
EARNINGS +$6114
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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