For Welling United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Welling United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
11 St Albans City
1:0
+24
12/10
Home
37 Eastbourne Borough
0:1
+24
08/10
Away
35 Worthing
0:1
+34
05/10
Home
40 Weston-super-Mare
1:3
+5
21/09
Away
37 Boreham Wood
0:6
+2
07/09
Home
39 Torquay United
2:0
+77
02/09
Away
36 Hemel Hempstead Town
2:4
+5
31/08
Home
29 Chesham United
1:3
+3
Similarly, for Enfield Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
16 Aveley
2:4
+2
12/10
Away
44 Farnborough
1:4
+5
05/10
Home
10 Weymouth
1:0
+17
28/09
Away
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
0:4
+1
21/09
Away
26 Bath City
1:0
+47
07/09
Home
28 Maidstone United
1:4
+2
03/09
Away
37 Eastbourne Borough
0:1
+29
31/08
Away
27 Chippenham Town
2:3
+18
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 174 points to the home team and 121 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Welling United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.5% of victories for the team Welling United occurred in home matches. For the team Enfield Town this indicator is 53.97%. On average, this equates to 58.23%, suggesting a slight advantage for Welling United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Welling United
Welling United 62.5%
Enfield Town
Enfield Town 53.97%
Average
Average 58.23%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.23% of the home team's points and 41.77% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Welling United with an advantage of 101 points against 51. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.58% to 33.42%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.42% with a coefficient of 4.27. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.74, and for the away team's victory it is 5.22. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 75%, and the away team's victory - 25%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Enfield Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.42%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.22, while in reality, it should be 3.91.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.74
4.27
5.22
Our calculation
1.96
4.27
3.91
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.22
2024 October
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England. National League South
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ROI +13.11%
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