For Udinese, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Udinese conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
10/03
Away
41 Lazio
1:1
+51
01/03
Home
19 Parma
1:0
+32
21/02
Away
22 Lecce
1:0
+39
16/02
Home
14 Empoli
3:0
+62
09/02
Away
43 Napoli
1:1
+42
01/02
Home
17 Venezia
3:2
+21
26/01
Home
38 Roma
1:2
+21
20/01
Away
22 Como
1:4
+2
Similarly, for Verona, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/03
Home
43 Bologna
1:2
+28
03/03
Away
39 Juventus
0:2
+7
23/02
Home
34 Fiorentina
1:0
+44
15/02
Away
32 Milan
0:1
+30
08/02
Home
49 Atalanta
0:5
+2
01/02
Away
8 Monza
1:0
+15
27/01
Away
17 Venezia
1:1
+18
19/01
Home
41 Lazio
0:3
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 270 points to the home team and 146 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Udinese) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 49.02% of victories for the team Udinese occurred in home matches. For the team Verona this indicator is 61.54%. On average, this equates to 55.28%, suggesting a slight advantage for Udinese all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Udinese
Udinese 49.02%
Verona
Verona 61.54%
Average
Average 55.28%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.28% of the home team's points and 44.72% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Udinese with an advantage of 149 points against 65. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 69.54% to 30.46%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.88% with a coefficient of 3.72. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.83, and for the away team's victory it is 5.41. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.75%, and the away team's victory - 25.25%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Verona's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.02%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.41, while in reality, it should be 4.49.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.83
3.72
5.41
Our calculation
1.97
3.72
4.49
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.41
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