For Torquay United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Torquay United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
37 Eastbourne Borough
1:1
+50
05/10
Away
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
1:0
+50
21/09
Home
11 St Albans City
1:1
+11
07/09
Away
24 Welling United
0:2
+4
03/09
Home
27 Chippenham Town
3:0
+109
31/08
Home
16 Aveley
1:1
+12
26/08
Away
29 Chesham United
3:2
+50
24/08
Home
33 Dorking Wanderers
1:0
+36
Similarly, for Worthing, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
33 Tonbridge Angels
3:2
+58
08/10
Home
24 Welling United
1:0
+37
05/10
Home
28 Maidstone United
0:2
+4
21/09
Away
10 Weymouth
1:1
+11
07/09
Home
23 Hornchurch
0:0
+22
02/09
Away
37 Boreham Wood
2:1
+62
31/08
Away
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
3:2
+38
26/08
Away
43 Truro City
0:5
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 324 points to the home team and 232 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Torquay United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.94% of victories for the team Torquay United occurred in home matches. For the team Worthing this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 55.47%, suggesting a slight advantage for Torquay United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Torquay United
Torquay United 60.94%
Worthing
Worthing 50%
Average
Average 55.47%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.47% of the home team's points and 44.53% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Torquay United with an advantage of 179 points against 103. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.45% to 36.55%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.19% with a coefficient of 3.97. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.21, and for the away team's victory it is 3.38. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.43%, and the away team's victory - 39.57%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Torquay United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.71%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.21, while in reality, it should be 2.11.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.21
3.97
3.38
Our calculation
2.11
3.97
3.66
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.21
2024 October
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