For Tonbridge Angels, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tonbridge Angels conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
35 Worthing
2:3
+35
05/10
Away
39 Slough Town
1:3
+8
21/09
Home
22 Hampton & Richmond Borough
2:2
+19
07/09
Away
27 Chippenham Town
0:0
+29
03/09
Home
11 St Albans City
2:0
+32
31/08
Home
28 Salisbury FC
1:0
+37
26/08
Away
44 Farnborough
2:0
+124
24/08
Home
26 Bath City
0:0
+20
Similarly, for Dorking Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
28 Salisbury FC
3:3
+25
12/10
Home
36 Hemel Hempstead Town
3:2
+58
05/10
Home
23 Hornchurch
3:1
+63
21/09
Away
40 Weston-super-Mare
1:1
+45
07/09
Home
10 Weymouth
1:2
+7
02/09
Away
16 Aveley
1:3
+2
31/08
Away
37 Eastbourne Borough
2:2
+38
26/08
Home
11 St Albans City
2:1
+15
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 304 points to the home team and 253 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tonbridge Angels) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.93% of victories for the team Tonbridge Angels occurred in home matches. For the team Dorking Wanderers this indicator is 60%. On average, this equates to 59.47%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tonbridge Angels all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels 58.93%
Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers 60%
Average
Average 59.47%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.47% of the home team's points and 40.54% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tonbridge Angels with an advantage of 181 points against 103. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.79% to 36.21%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.25% with a coefficient of 3.81. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.12, and for the away team's victory it is 2.4. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 43.48%, and the away team's victory - 56.52%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tonbridge Angels's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 20.31%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.12, while in reality, it should be 2.13.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.12
3.81
2.4
Our calculation
2.13
3.81
3.74
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.12
2024 October
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England. National League South
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ROI +13.11%
EARNINGS +$9373
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