For Tammeka Tartu, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tammeka Tartu conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
55 FCI Levadia
0:3
+5
05/10
Away
17 Kalev Tallinn
2:1
+32
29/09
Home
44 Nomme Kalju
2:3
+28
21/09
Away
44 Flora
1:2
+37
18/09
Away
21 Parnu Vaprus
2:2
+21
13/09
Home
17 Kalev Tallinn
4:1
+74
31/08
Away
31 Narva Trans
1:0
+50
24/08
Home
41 Paide Linnameeskond
1:3
+4
Similarly, for Kuressaare, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
17 Kalev Tallinn
2:1
+33
06/10
Away
21 Parnu Vaprus
1:3
+3
28/09
Home
10 Nomme United
4:1
+47
21/09
Away
41 Paide Linnameeskond
3:4
+34
17/09
Home
55 FCI Levadia
0:1
+39
14/09
Home
44 Flora
3:4
+32
01/09
Away
10 Nomme United
2:2
+10
24/08
Home
31 Narva Trans
0:1
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 251 points to the home team and 216 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tammeka Tartu) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.45% of victories for the team Tammeka Tartu occurred in home matches. For the team Kuressaare this indicator is 52.46%. On average, this equates to 52.95%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tammeka Tartu all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tammeka Tartu
Tammeka Tartu 53.45%
Kuressaare
Kuressaare 52.46%
Average
Average 52.95%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.95% of the home team's points and 47.05% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tammeka Tartu with an advantage of 133 points against 102. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.61% to 43.39%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.57% with a coefficient of 4.07. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.04, and for the away team's victory it is 3.79. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 65.05%, and the away team's victory - 34.95%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kuressaare's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.31%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.79, while in reality, it should be 3.06.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.04
4.07
3.79
Our calculation
2.34
4.07
3.06
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.79
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