For South Shields, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team South Shields conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
32 Leamington
1:0
+46
12/10
Away
32 Southport
0:3
+3
05/10
Away
24 Needham Market
0:3
+2
21/09
Home
36 Chorley
3:3
+29
07/09
Away
37 Chester
0:1
+30
03/09
Home
23 Buxton
1:0
+31
31/08
Away
31 Scarborough Athletic
2:1
+53
26/08
Home
44 Scunthorpe United
0:2
+4
Similarly, for Radcliffe, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
28 Brackley Town
1:0
+55
12/10
Home
23 Warrington Town
1:2
+20
05/10
Away
17 Marine
0:1
+15
07/09
Away
32 Southport
2:2
+32
03/09
Home
33 Spennymoor Town
2:4
+4
31/08
Home
38 King's Lynn Town
1:2
+28
26/08
Away
38 Hereford
3:3
+36
24/08
Home
24 Needham Market
1:1
+18
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 198 points to the home team and 208 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (South Shields) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.09% of victories for the team South Shields occurred in home matches. For the team Radcliffe this indicator is 47.69%. On average, this equates to 53.39%, suggesting a slight advantage for South Shields all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
South Shields
South Shields 59.09%
Radcliffe
Radcliffe 47.69%
Average
Average 53.39%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.39% of the home team's points and 46.61% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is South Shields with an advantage of 106 points against 97. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.13% to 47.87%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.19% with a coefficient of 3.97. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.24, and for the away team's victory it is 3.33. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 59.8%, and the away team's victory - 40.2%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Radcliffe's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.68%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.33, while in reality, it should be 2.79.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.24
3.97
3.33
Our calculation
2.56
3.97
2.79
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.33
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