For Schwaben Augsburg, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Schwaben Augsburg conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
26 Ansbach
1:2
+28
12/10
Home
36 Wacker Burghausen
3:2
+58
06/10
Away
42 Bayreuth
2:3
+42
03/10
Away
10 Turkgucu Munchen
3:1
+33
27/09
Home
36 Illertissen 1921
0:1
+26
21/09
Away
37 Greuther Furth II
0:1
+29
14/09
Home
48 Schweinfurt 05
4:3
+58
07/09
Away
20 Eintracht Bamberg
2:0
+49
Similarly, for Nurnberg II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
10 Turkgucu Munchen
1:3
+2
12/10
Away
36 Illertissen 1921
2:0
+123
06/10
Home
37 Greuther Furth II
0:2
+5
02/10
Away
48 Schweinfurt 05
1:4
+4
28/09
Home
20 Eintracht Bamberg
4:0
+91
21/09
Away
28 Buchbach
0:0
+31
17/09
Away
42 Wurzburger Kickers
2:2
+38
14/09
Home
25 Hankofen-Hailing
2:2
+17
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 322 points to the home team and 310 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Schwaben Augsburg) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.97% of victories for the team Schwaben Augsburg occurred in home matches. For the team Nurnberg II this indicator is 53.85%. On average, this equates to 53.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Schwaben Augsburg all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg 53.97%
Nurnberg II
Nurnberg II 53.85%
Average
Average 53.91%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.91% of the home team's points and 46.09% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Schwaben Augsburg with an advantage of 174 points against 143. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.86% to 45.14%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.69% with a coefficient of 4.05. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.94, and for the away team's victory it is 2.42. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 45.14%, and the away team's victory - 54.87%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Schwaben Augsburg's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.94, while in reality, it should be 2.42.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.94
4.05
2.42
Our calculation
2.42
4.05
2.94
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.94
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