For Scarborough Athletic, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Scarborough Athletic conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
32 Southport
1:2
+26
05/10
Away
32 Leamington
1:1
+42
21/09
Home
44 Scunthorpe United
1:0
+66
07/09
Away
39 Alfreton Town
1:1
+45
03/09
Home
38 King's Lynn Town
0:0
+34
31/08
Home
28 South Shields
1:2
+17
26/08
Away
37 Chester
2:3
+27
24/08
Home
22 Farsley Celtic
2:1
+27
Similarly, for Curzon Ashton, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
38 Hereford
1:2
+36
05/10
Away
23 Buxton
1:0
+42
21/09
Home
27 Peterborough Sports
1:1
+33
07/09
Away
38 King's Lynn Town
2:0
+94
03/09
Home
44 Scunthorpe United
0:1
+34
31/08
Away
20 Rushall Olympic
2:1
+32
26/08
Home
28 Darlington
0:0
+24
24/08
Away
28 Brackley Town
0:4
+1
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 286 points to the home team and 297 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Scarborough Athletic) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.32% of victories for the team Scarborough Athletic occurred in home matches. For the team Curzon Ashton this indicator is 39.68%. On average, this equates to 49.5%, suggesting a slight advantage for Scarborough Athletic all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic 59.32%
Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton 39.68%
Average
Average 49.5%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.5% of the home team's points and 50.5% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Curzon Ashton with an advantage of 150 points against 141. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.46% to 48.54%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.82% with a coefficient of 3.47. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.63, and for the away team's victory it is 3.02. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 53.48%, and the away team's victory - 46.53%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Curzon Ashton's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.84%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.02, while in reality, it should be 2.73.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.63
3.47
3.02
Our calculation
2.89
3.47
2.73
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.02
2024 October
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ROI +18.11%
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