For Salisbury FC, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Salisbury FC conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
33 Dorking Wanderers
3:3
+45
12/10
Home
23 Hornchurch
2:2
+22
05/10
Away
11 St Albans City
4:3
+22
21/09
Home
27 Chippenham Town
3:2
+40
07/09
Away
44 Farnborough
1:3
+7
03/09
Home
29 Chesham United
1:2
+17
31/08
Away
33 Tonbridge Angels
0:1
+25
26/08
Home
37 Boreham Wood
2:1
+44
Similarly, for Weston-super-Mare, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
37 Boreham Wood
0:0
+40
05/10
Away
24 Welling United
3:1
+90
21/09
Home
33 Dorking Wanderers
1:1
+30
07/09
Away
11 St Albans City
0:0
+11
03/09
Home
39 Slough Town
2:0
+87
31/08
Home
23 Hornchurch
3:2
+36
26/08
Away
28 Maidstone United
1:0
+45
24/08
Home
30 Chelmsford City
2:0
+75
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 223 points to the home team and 414 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Salisbury FC) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.02% of victories for the team Salisbury FC occurred in home matches. For the team Weston-super-Mare this indicator is 50.79%. On average, this equates to 55.91%, suggesting a slight advantage for Salisbury FC all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Salisbury FC
Salisbury FC 61.02%
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare 50.79%
Average
Average 55.91%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.91% of the home team's points and 44.09% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Weston-super-Mare with an advantage of 183 points against 125. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.42% to 40.58%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.67% with a coefficient of 3.75. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.13, and for the away team's victory it is 2.42. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 43.57%, and the away team's victory - 56.43%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Weston-super-Mare's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.88%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.42, while in reality, it should be 2.29.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.13
3.75
2.42
Our calculation
3.36
3.75
2.29
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.42
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
England. National League South
QUANTITY 715
ROI +13.11%
EARNINGS +$9373
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
2024 © betzax.com