For Salford City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Salford City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
35 Crewe Alexandra
1:1
+39
12/10
Home
30 Grimsby Town
1:2
+25
05/10
Home
39 AFC Wimbledon
1:0
+60
01/10
Away
27 Newport County
1:3
+4
27/09
Away
26 Tranmere Rovers
0:0
+29
21/09
Home
43 Walsall
0:2
+5
14/09
Home
22 Cheltenham Town
2:1
+33
02/09
Home
28 Milton Keynes Dons
1:0
+39
Similarly, for Swindon Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
40 Doncaster Rovers
1:2
+26
12/10
Away
22 Cheltenham Town
3:2
+49
05/10
Home
26 Harrogate Town
0:0
+26
01/10
Away
26 Tranmere Rovers
1:1
+36
28/09
Away
42 Port Vale
1:2
+38
21/09
Home
15 Carlisle United
0:2
+2
14/09
Home
27 Newport County
4:0
+96
07/09
Away
33 Barrow
1:1
+35
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 234 points to the home team and 306 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Salford City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 46.43% of victories for the team Salford City occurred in home matches. For the team Swindon Town this indicator is 63.79%. On average, this equates to 55.11%, suggesting a slight advantage for Salford City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Salford City
Salford City 46.43%
Swindon Town
Swindon Town 63.79%
Average
Average 55.11%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.11% of the home team's points and 44.89% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Swindon Town with an advantage of 138 points against 129. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.56% to 48.44%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.01% with a coefficient of 3.57. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.5, and for the away team's victory it is 3.12. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 55.51%, and the away team's victory - 44.49%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Swindon Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.1%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.12, while in reality, it should be 2.69.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.5
3.57
3.12
Our calculation
2.87
3.57
2.69
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.12
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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