For Rochdale, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Rochdale conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
27 Southend United
0:1
+21
05/10
Away
10 Ebbsfleet United
2:2
+13
28/09
Home
20 Braintree Town
1:0
+29
24/09
Away
25 Hartlepool United
3:0
+140
21/09
Away
32 Eastleigh
2:4
+5
14/09
Home
30 Solihull Moors
1:2
+22
10/09
Home
23 Maidenhead United
3:1
+46
07/09
Away
26 Aldershot Town
2:0
+75
Similarly, for Halifax Town, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
15 Boston United
1:0
+28
05/10
Home
29 Tamworth
3:2
+49
28/09
Home
13 Wealdstone
2:2
+12
24/09
Away
20 Braintree Town
0:1
+17
21/09
Away
23 Maidenhead United
1:0
+43
14/09
Home
32 Eastleigh
3:1
+74
10/09
Home
39 Oldham Athletic
1:1
+34
07/09
Away
25 Hartlepool United
0:0
+23
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 351 points to the home team and 281 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Rochdale) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.62% of victories for the team Rochdale occurred in home matches. For the team Halifax Town this indicator is 50.91%. On average, this equates to 54.77%, suggesting a slight advantage for Rochdale all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Rochdale
Rochdale 58.62%
Halifax Town
Halifax Town 50.91%
Average
Average 54.77%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.77% of the home team's points and 45.24% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Rochdale with an advantage of 192 points against 127. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.15% to 39.85%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.67% with a coefficient of 3.75. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.98, and for the away team's victory it is 4.36. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 68.73%, and the away team's victory - 31.27%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Halifax Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.67%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.36, while in reality, it should be 3.42.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.98
3.75
4.36
Our calculation
2.27
3.75
3.42
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.36
2024 October
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ROI +13.61%
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Previous week
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ROI +12.44%
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England. National League
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ROI +8.23%
EARNINGS +$6600
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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