For Roasso Kumamoto, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Roasso Kumamoto conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/06
Away
29 Blaublitz Akita
1:1
+24
02/06
Away
16 Tochigi
3:1
+50
26/05
Home
25 Montedio Yamagata
0:1
+20
18/05
Away
24 Tokushima Vortis
2:1
+37
12/05
Home
42 Yokohama FC
0:0
+40
06/05
Away
20 Mito HollyHock
0:2
+3
03/05
Home
18 Kagoshima United
2:2
+16
28/04
Home
27 Oita Trinita
1:2
+18
Similarly, for Fagiano Okayama, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
09/06
Home
18 Kagoshima United
1:1
+19
01/06
Away
34 JEF United
1:2
+33
26/05
Away
36 Vegalta Sendai
4:1
+177
19/05
Home
26 Ventforet Kofu
2:0
+74
12/05
Away
46 V-Varen Nagasaki
0:0
+44
06/05
Home
24 Tokushima Vortis
1:2
+17
03/05
Away
25 Montedio Yamagata
2:2
+25
28/04
Home
48 Shimizu S-Pulse
0:1
+26
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 207 points to the home team and 414 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Roasso Kumamoto) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 35.71% of victories for the team Roasso Kumamoto occurred in home matches. For the team Fagiano Okayama this indicator is 54.72%. On average, this equates to 45.22%, suggesting a slight advantage for Roasso Kumamoto all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto 35.71%
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama 54.72%
Average
Average 45.22%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 45.22% of the home team's points and 54.78% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fagiano Okayama with an advantage of 227 points against 94. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 70.79% to 29.21%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.65% with a coefficient of 3.49. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3, and for the away team's victory it is 2.63. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 46.63%, and the away team's victory - 53.37%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fagiano Okayama's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17.22%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.63, while in reality, it should be 1.98.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3
3.49
2.63
Our calculation
4.8
3.49
1.98
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.63
2024 June
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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