For New York Red Bulls, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team New York Red Bulls conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
09/06
Away
18 New England Revolution
0:1
+21
02/06
Home
23 Orlando City
1:0
+35
30/05
Home
31 Charlotte FC
3:1
+61
19/05
Away
36 New York City
1:2
+38
16/05
Away
24 D.C. United
4:1
+128
12/05
Home
18 New England Revolution
4:2
+31
05/05
Away
42 Inter Miami
2:6
+2
28/04
Home
34 Vancouver Whitecaps
1:1
+21
Similarly, for Nashville, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
02/06
Home
18 New England Revolution
1:2
+11
30/05
Away
42 FC Cincinnati
2:0
+163
26/05
Away
23 Montreal
0:0
+30
18/05
Home
23 Atlanta United
1:1
+15
16/05
Home
30 Toronto FC
2:0
+57
12/05
Away
31 Charlotte FC
0:1
+31
05/05
Home
23 Montreal
4:1
+67
28/04
Home
15 San Jose Earthquakes
1:1
+7
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 336 points to the home team and 381 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (New York Red Bulls) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.07% of victories for the team New York Red Bulls occurred in home matches. For the team Nashville this indicator is 62.96%. On average, this equates to 62.52%, suggesting a slight advantage for New York Red Bulls all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls 62.07%
Nashville
Nashville 62.96%
Average
Average 62.52%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.52% of the home team's points and 37.48% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is New York Red Bulls with an advantage of 210 points against 143. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.52% to 40.48%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.51% with a coefficient of 3.92. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.86, and for the away team's victory it is 4.85. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 72.33%, and the away team's victory - 27.67%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Nashville's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.81%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.85, while in reality, it should be 3.32.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.86
3.92
4.85
Our calculation
2.26
3.92
3.32
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.85
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
3 June 2024 - 9 June 2024
QUANTITY 206
ROI +55.99%
EARNINGS +$11534
USA. MLS
QUANTITY 251
ROI +16.75%
EARNINGS +$4203
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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