For Neftekhimik, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Neftekhimik conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
01/09
Away
22 KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
0:0
+31
24/08
Home
43 Ural
1:1
+40
17/08
Away
42 Torpedo Moscow
1:2
+39
11/08
Away
43 Arsenal Tula
1:1
+49
04/08
Home
31 Rotor Volgograd
1:0
+48
28/07
Away
36 Chaika Peschanokopskoe
0:4
+2
21/07
Home
15 Ufa
2:1
+18
14/07
Home
15 Tyumen
3:0
+55
Similarly, for Yenisey, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
31/08
Home
34 Baltika
1:2
+21
25/08
Away
36 Chaika Peschanokopskoe
0:2
+7
18/08
Home
35 FC Sochi
1:0
+42
10/08
Away
22 Alaniya
1:0
+49
05/08
Away
43 Arsenal Tula
1:2
+43
27/07
Home
42 Torpedo Moscow
0:1
+21
20/07
Away
29 Sokol Saratov
0:1
+24
14/07
Home
22 KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
2:1
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 281 points to the home team and 225 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Neftekhimik) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.85% of victories for the team Neftekhimik occurred in home matches. For the team Yenisey this indicator is 68.25%. On average, this equates to 59.55%, suggesting a slight advantage for Neftekhimik all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Neftekhimik
Neftekhimik 50.85%
Yenisey
Yenisey 68.25%
Average
Average 59.55%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.55% of the home team's points and 40.45% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Neftekhimik with an advantage of 167 points against 91. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 64.82% to 35.18%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.77% with a coefficient of 3.25. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.47, and for the away team's victory it is 3.48. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.45%, and the away team's victory - 41.55%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Neftekhimik's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.19%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.47, while in reality, it should be 2.23.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.47
3.25
3.48
Our calculation
2.23
3.25
4.11
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.47
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
26 August 2024 - 1 September 2024
QUANTITY 278
ROI +22.85%
EARNINGS +$6353
2024 September
QUANTITY 651
ROI +4.79%
EARNINGS +$3118
USA. MLS
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