For Necaxa, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Necaxa conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
09/03
Away
42 Toluca
2:5
+5
02/03
Home
42 Tigres
1:2
+23
22/02
Home
25 Mazatlan
3:1
+62
19/02
Away
25 Atlas
4:0
+151
15/02
Away
48 America
3:2
+97
08/02
Home
14 Santos Laguna
3:2
+16
02/02
Away
32 Monterrey
0:1
+25
29/01
Home
36 Cruz Azul
1:3
+4
Similarly, for Leon, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
10/03
Away
14 Santos Laguna
1:2
+16
02/03
Home
14 Tijuana
2:1
+17
23/02
Home
42 Tigres
1:0
+46
20/02
Away
48 America
1:1
+60
17/02
Away
17 Atletico San Luis
2:1
+36
09/02
Home
42 Toluca
3:3
+26
06/02
Away
33 Pachuca
2:1
+57
01/02
Away
25 Mazatlan
2:1
+42
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 382 points to the home team and 301 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Necaxa) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.9% of victories for the team Necaxa occurred in home matches. For the team Leon this indicator is 63.79%. On average, this equates to 60.84%, suggesting a slight advantage for Necaxa all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Necaxa
Necaxa 57.9%
Leon
Leon 63.79%
Average
Average 60.84%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.84% of the home team's points and 39.16% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Necaxa with an advantage of 232 points against 118. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.34% to 33.66%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.51% with a coefficient of 3.92. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.31, and for the away team's victory it is 3.2. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.06%, and the away team's victory - 41.94%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Necaxa's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.46%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.31, while in reality, it should be 2.02.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.31
3.92
3.2
Our calculation
2.02
3.92
3.99
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.31
2025 February
QUANTITY 2259
ROI +13.41%
EARNINGS +$30296
2025 March
QUANTITY 1240
ROI +7.56%
EARNINGS +$9374
Previous week
QUANTITY 609
ROI +11.65%
EARNINGS +$7095
Germany. Bundesliga
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