For Monterey Bay, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Monterey Bay conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
01/09
Away
8 Miami FC
0:1
+8
25/08
Home
20 El Paso Locomotive
0:0
+21
18/08
Away
39 New Mexico United
2:3
+41
11/08
Home
27 Birmingham Legion
1:2
+18
04/08
Home
37 Tampa Bay Rowdies
2:2
+26
28/07
Away
47 Louisville City
1:4
+4
14/07
Home
26 Tulsa Roughnecks
0:0
+18
07/07
Away
27 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1:0
+45
Similarly, for San Antonio, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
01/09
Home
42 Charleston Battery
1:1
+31
25/08
Away
36 Sacramento Republic
0:1
+41
18/08
Home
28 North Carolina FC
1:0
+36
11/08
Away
27 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0:0
+34
04/08
Home
26 Tulsa Roughnecks
1:3
+3
28/07
Away
36 Memphis 901
0:1
+32
21/07
Away
18 Orange County SC
0:2
+3
07/07
Home
29 Phoenix Rising
2:1
+26
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 181 points to the home team and 205 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Monterey Bay) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65% of victories for the team Monterey Bay occurred in home matches. For the team San Antonio this indicator is 73.21%. On average, this equates to 69.11%, suggesting a slight advantage for Monterey Bay all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Monterey Bay
Monterey Bay 65%
San Antonio
San Antonio 73.21%
Average
Average 69.11%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 69.11% of the home team's points and 30.89% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Monterey Bay with an advantage of 125 points against 63. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.45% to 33.55%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.15% with a coefficient of 3.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.83, and for the away team's victory it is 2.81. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.81%, and the away team's victory - 50.19%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Monterey Bay's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.84%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.83, while in reality, it should be 2.12.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.83
3.43
2.81
Our calculation
2.12
3.43
4.21
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.83
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
26 August 2024 - 1 September 2024
QUANTITY 278
ROI +22.85%
EARNINGS +$6353
2024 September
QUANTITY 648
ROI +5.27%
EARNINGS +$3418
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