For Mazatlan, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Mazatlan conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
31 Atlas
0:0
+42
05/10
Home
15 Queretaro
2:2
+14
28/09
Away
39 Tijuana
0:1
+44
22/09
Away
38 Monterrey
0:0
+41
19/09
Home
25 Necaxa
0:0
+18
14/09
Away
18 Juarez
0:1
+16
31/08
Home
18 Puebla
1:1
+13
24/08
Home
17 Pachuca
3:0
+56
Similarly, for Tigres, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/10
Away
38 Monterrey
2:4
+8
06/10
Home
18 Puebla
1:0
+24
28/09
Home
21 Leon
2:2
+15
23/09
Away
18 Juarez
1:0
+40
18/09
Away
15 Queretaro
0:1
+14
14/09
Home
33 Atletico San Luis
1:0
+34
02/09
Away
41 UNAM
3:1
+138
25/08
Home
34 Guadalajara
1:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 244 points to the home team and 293 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Mazatlan) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.32% of victories for the team Mazatlan occurred in home matches. For the team Tigres this indicator is 72.88%. On average, this equates to 66.1%, suggesting a slight advantage for Mazatlan all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Mazatlan
Mazatlan 59.32%
Tigres
Tigres 72.88%
Average
Average 66.1%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 66.1% of the home team's points and 33.9% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Mazatlan with an advantage of 162 points against 99. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 61.94% to 38.06%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.86% with a coefficient of 3.59. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.51, and for the away team's victory it is 2.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 39.48%, and the away team's victory - 60.52%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Mazatlan's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 22.61%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.51, while in reality, it should be 2.24.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.51
3.59
2.29
Our calculation
2.24
3.59
3.64
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.51
2024 October
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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