Mainz 05 vs Freiburg prediction

Mainz 05

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: Germany. Bundesliga

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Freiburg

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Mainz 05 and Freiburg. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Mainz 05

For Mainz 05, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Mainz 05 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

07/03

Away

34 Borussia Monchengladbach

3:1

+130

01/03

Away

31 RB Leipzig

2:1

+67

22/02

Home

20 St Pauli

2:0

+54

16/02

Away

9 Heidenheim

2:0

+29

08/02

Home

33 Augsburg

0:0

+22

31/01

Away

27 Werder Bremen

0:1

+21

25/01

Home

31 Stuttgart

2:0

+63

19/01

Away

21 Union Berlin

1:2

+16

Freiburg

Similarly, for Freiburg, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Home

31 RB Leipzig

0:0

+28

02/03

Away

33 Augsburg

0:0

+46

21/02

Home

27 Werder Bremen

5:0

+135

15/02

Away

20 St Pauli

1:0

+37

08/02

Home

9 Heidenheim

1:0

+12

01/02

Away

19 Bochum

1:0

+36

25/01

Home

53 Bayern Munich

1:2

+29

18/01

Away

31 Stuttgart

0:4

+1

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 403 points to the home team and 325 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Mainz 05) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Mainz 05 403
Freiburg 325

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.14% of victories for the team Mainz 05 occurred in home matches. For the team Freiburg this indicator is 57.38%. On average, this equates to 56.76%, suggesting a slight advantage for Mainz 05 all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Mainz 05

Mainz 05 56.14%

Freiburg

Freiburg 57.38%

Average

Average 56.76%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.76% of the home team's points and 43.24% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Mainz 05 with an advantage of 229 points against 140. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 61.96% to 38.04%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Mainz 05 229
Freiburg 140

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.32% with a coefficient of 3.66. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.96, and for the away team's victory it is 4.6. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 70.06%, and the away team's victory - 29.94%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Mainz 05 70.06%
Freiburg 29.94%

Our calculation

Mainz 05 61.96%
Freiburg 38.04%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Freiburg's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.44%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.6, while in reality, it should be 3.62.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

1.96

3.66

4.6

Our calculation

2.22

3.66

3.62

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

4.6

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1243

ROI +7.66%

EARNINGS +$9523

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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