For Maidenhead United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Maidenhead United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
25 Hartlepool United
1:1
+24
05/10
Away
27 Southend United
2:0
+100
28/09
Away
15 Boston United
2:1
+30
24/09
Home
10 Ebbsfleet United
2:1
+13
21/09
Home
34 Halifax Town
0:1
+22
14/09
Away
29 Tamworth
1:3
+5
10/09
Away
38 Rochdale
1:3
+6
07/09
Home
32 Dagenham & Redbridge
1:1
+25
Similarly, for Oldham Athletic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
29 Sutton United
3:1
+96
05/10
Home
30 Solihull Moors
2:3
+31
28/09
Away
10 Ebbsfleet United
2:1
+18
24/09
Home
45 Forest Green Rovers
1:0
+79
21/09
Home
32 Yeovil Town
1:0
+50
14/09
Away
25 Woking
3:1
+65
10/09
Away
34 Halifax Town
1:1
+29
07/09
Home
27 Southend United
1:1
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 224 points to the home team and 389 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Maidenhead United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Maidenhead United occurred in home matches. For the team Oldham Athletic this indicator is 46%. On average, this equates to 53%, suggesting a slight advantage for Maidenhead United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Maidenhead United
Maidenhead United 60%
Oldham Athletic
Oldham Athletic 46%
Average
Average 53%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53% of the home team's points and 47% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Oldham Athletic with an advantage of 183 points against 119. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.67% to 39.33%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.95% with a coefficient of 3.71. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.41, and for the away team's victory it is 2.29. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 40.19%, and the away team's victory - 59.81%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Oldham Athletic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.87%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.29, while in reality, it should be 2.26.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.41
3.71
2.29
Our calculation
3.48
3.71
2.26
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.29
2024 October
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Previous week
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ROI +12.44%
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England. National League
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ROI +8.23%
EARNINGS +$6600
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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