For Leyton Orient, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Leyton Orient conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
23 Northampton Town
0:1
+22
05/10
Away
38 Lincoln City
1:2
+30
01/10
Home
40 Exeter City
0:1
+34
28/09
Home
45 Wrexham
0:0
+38
24/09
Home
27 Peterborough United
2:2
+25
21/09
Away
38 Stockport County
4:1
+162
14/09
Away
35 Reading
1:0
+61
31/08
Away
16 Shrewsbury Town
0:3
+1
Similarly, for Rotherham United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
45 Wrexham
0:1
+26
12/10
Away
27 Peterborough United
3:3
+36
05/10
Home
35 Reading
2:1
+39
01/10
Away
10 Cambridge United
1:0
+21
28/09
Away
16 Shrewsbury Town
1:1
+18
21/09
Home
52 Birmingham City
0:2
+5
14/09
Home
10 Burton Albion
2:2
+7
07/09
Away
32 Charlton Athletic
1:1
+32
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 372 points to the home team and 185 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Leyton Orient) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50% of victories for the team Leyton Orient occurred in home matches. For the team Rotherham United this indicator is 65.52%. On average, this equates to 57.76%, suggesting a slight advantage for Leyton Orient all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient 50%
Rotherham United
Rotherham United 65.52%
Average
Average 57.76%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.76% of the home team's points and 42.24% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Leyton Orient with an advantage of 215 points against 78. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.36% to 26.64%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.86% with a coefficient of 3.59. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.68, and for the away team's victory it is 2.87. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 51.71%, and the away team's victory - 48.29%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Leyton Orient's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 21.65%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.68, while in reality, it should be 1.89.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.68
3.59
2.87
Our calculation
1.89
3.59
5.2
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.68
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