For Leamington, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Leamington conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
28 South Shields
0:1
+32
05/10
Home
31 Scarborough Athletic
1:1
+26
24/09
Home
21 Oxford City
4:1
+80
21/09
Away
22 Farsley Celtic
1:0
+44
03/09
Away
23 Warrington Town
1:1
+25
31/08
Away
17 Marine
0:0
+19
26/08
Home
20 Rushall Olympic
2:1
+22
24/08
Away
28 Darlington
0:1
+22
Similarly, for Southport, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
31 Scarborough Athletic
2:1
+65
12/10
Home
28 South Shields
3:0
+131
05/10
Home
28 Brackley Town
0:0
+28
21/09
Away
28 Darlington
0:3
+2
07/09
Home
14 Radcliffe
2:2
+14
03/09
Home
22 Farsley Celtic
1:1
+18
31/08
Home
23 Buxton
3:2
+32
26/08
Away
36 Chorley
1:4
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 269 points to the home team and 293 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Leamington) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.86% of victories for the team Leamington occurred in home matches. For the team Southport this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 58.93%, suggesting a slight advantage for Leamington all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Leamington
Leamington 67.86%
Southport
Southport 50%
Average
Average 58.93%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.93% of the home team's points and 41.07% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Leamington with an advantage of 158 points against 120. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.79% to 43.21%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.49% with a coefficient of 3.51. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.9, and for the away team's victory it is 2.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.25%, and the away team's victory - 51.75%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Leamington's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.54%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.9, while in reality, it should be 2.46.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.9
3.51
2.7
Our calculation
2.46
3.51
3.24
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.9
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