For Kidderminster Harriers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kidderminster Harriers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
24 Needham Market
3:0
+133
05/10
Away
33 Spennymoor Town
1:1
+42
21/09
Home
39 Alfreton Town
0:1
+30
07/09
Away
36 Chorley
1:2
+33
03/09
Home
37 Chester
1:1
+34
30/08
Away
44 Scunthorpe United
0:2
+6
26/08
Home
21 Oxford City
4:0
+87
24/08
Away
23 Warrington Town
1:2
+15
Similarly, for Marine, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Away
27 Peterborough Sports
0:2
+4
05/10
Home
14 Radcliffe
1:0
+25
21/09
Away
28 Brackley Town
0:1
+25
07/09
Home
28 Darlington
0:0
+24
03/09
Away
20 Rushall Olympic
0:2
+3
31/08
Home
32 Leamington
0:0
+24
26/08
Away
23 Buxton
2:1
+38
24/08
Home
38 King's Lynn Town
0:1
+24
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 379 points to the home team and 167 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kidderminster Harriers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.67% of victories for the team Kidderminster Harriers occurred in home matches. For the team Marine this indicator is 55.88%. On average, this equates to 53.78%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kidderminster Harriers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Kidderminster Harriers
Kidderminster Harriers 51.67%
Marine
Marine 55.88%
Average
Average 53.78%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.78% of the home team's points and 46.23% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Kidderminster Harriers with an advantage of 204 points against 77. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.47% to 27.53%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.6% with a coefficient of 4.63. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.54, and for the away team's victory it is 7.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 82.93%, and the away team's victory - 17.07%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Marine's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.82%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7.47, while in reality, it should be 4.63.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.54
4.63
7.47
Our calculation
1.76
4.63
4.63
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
7.47
2024 October
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