For Houston Dynamo, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Houston Dynamo conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
01/09
Away
43 Los Angeles FC
2:0
+189
25/08
Home
24 Toronto FC
0:1
+14
21/07
Away
33 Vancouver Whitecaps
4:3
+73
18/07
Away
15 San Jose Earthquakes
1:0
+37
14/07
Home
27 Minnesota United
1:1
+17
04/07
Away
39 Real Salt Lake
2:3
+36
30/06
Home
32 Charlotte FC
1:0
+27
23/06
Away
20 D.C. United
4:1
+101
Similarly, for Los Angeles FC, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
01/09
Home
32 Houston Dynamo
0:2
+3
21/07
Away
35 Seattle Sounders
3:0
+233
18/07
Home
39 Real Salt Lake
1:1
+32
14/07
Home
43 Columbus Crew
1:5
+1
05/07
Away
39 Los Angeles Galaxy
2:1
+83
30/06
Home
38 Colorado Rapids
3:0
+109
23/06
Home
15 San Jose Earthquakes
6:2
+43
20/06
Away
26 Austin FC
1:1
+28
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 495 points to the home team and 532 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Houston Dynamo) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.46% of victories for the team Houston Dynamo occurred in home matches. For the team Los Angeles FC this indicator is 64.52%. On average, this equates to 64.99%, suggesting a slight advantage for Houston Dynamo all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo 65.46%
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC 64.52%
Average
Average 64.99%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.99% of the home team's points and 35.01% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Houston Dynamo with an advantage of 321 points against 186. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.3% to 36.7%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.13% with a coefficient of 3.98. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.98, and for the away team's victory it is 4.09. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.36%, and the away team's victory - 32.64%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Los Angeles FC's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.49%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.09, while in reality, it should be 3.64.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.98
3.98
4.09
Our calculation
2.11
3.98
3.64
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.09
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
26 August 2024 - 1 September 2024
QUANTITY 278
ROI +22.85%
EARNINGS +$6353
2024 September
QUANTITY 651
ROI +4.79%
EARNINGS +$3118
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