For Hoang Anh Gia Lai, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hoang Anh Gia Lai conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
30/05
Home
25 Thanh Hoa
1:1
+22
25/05
Away
30 TP Ho Chi Minh
1:4
+3
21/05
Home
30 Hong Linh Ha Tinh
2:1
+40
17/05
Away
41 Ha Noi
0:2
+7
13/05
Home
35 Nam Dinh
1:1
+28
09/05
Home
24 Song Lam Nghe An
1:0
+26
05/05
Away
36 Viettel
1:0
+64
04/04
Away
29 Quang Nam
1:1
+32
Similarly, for Binh Dinh, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
30/05
Home
29 Quang Nam
3:0
+113
26/05
Away
7 Sanna Khanh Hoa
2:1
+14
22/05
Home
24 Song Lam Nghe An
1:2
+15
18/05
Home
33 Hai Phong
1:1
+25
13/05
Away
36 Viettel
1:1
+41
08/05
Home
30 Hong Linh Ha Tinh
2:0
+64
04/05
Away
25 Thanh Hoa
0:0
+26
05/04
Away
35 Nam Dinh
4:2
+96
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 222 points to the home team and 393 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hoang Anh Gia Lai) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62% of victories for the team Hoang Anh Gia Lai occurred in home matches. For the team Binh Dinh this indicator is 59.32%. On average, this equates to 60.66%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hoang Anh Gia Lai all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 62%
Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh 59.32%
Average
Average 60.66%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.66% of the home team's points and 39.34% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Binh Dinh with an advantage of 154 points against 134. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.45% to 46.55%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.78% with a coefficient of 3.6. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.25, and for the away team's victory it is 3.61. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 61.63%, and the away team's victory - 38.37%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Binh Dinh's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.29%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.61, while in reality, it should be 2.59.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.25
3.6
3.61
Our calculation
2.97
3.6
2.59
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.61
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
3 June 2024 - 9 June 2024
QUANTITY 206
ROI +55.99%
EARNINGS +$11534
16 June 2024
QUANTITY 85
ROI +3.91%
EARNINGS +$332
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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