For Guadalajara, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Guadalajara conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/10
Away
17 Pachuca
2:0
+66
06/10
Home
31 Atlas
2:3
+18
29/09
Home
38 Monterrey
1:1
+35
22/09
Away
56 Cruz Azul
0:1
+54
19/09
Home
21 Leon
2:0
+43
15/09
Away
31 America
0:1
+28
01/09
Home
18 Juarez
5:0
+63
25/08
Away
42 Tigres
1:1
+44
Similarly, for Necaxa, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
39 Tijuana
1:2
+22
06/10
Away
56 Cruz Azul
0:3
+6
28/09
Away
15 Queretaro
0:0
+19
22/09
Home
31 America
1:1
+24
19/09
Away
18 Mazatlan
0:0
+21
14/09
Home
41 UNAM
2:0
+74
02/09
Away
15 Santos Laguna
2:3
+13
25/08
Home
18 Juarez
3:0
+56
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 350 points to the home team and 233 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Guadalajara) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.74% of victories for the team Guadalajara occurred in home matches. For the team Necaxa this indicator is 64.15%. On average, this equates to 65.95%, suggesting a slight advantage for Guadalajara all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Guadalajara
Guadalajara 67.74%
Necaxa
Necaxa 64.15%
Average
Average 65.95%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.95% of the home team's points and 34.05% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Guadalajara with an advantage of 231 points against 79. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.41% to 25.59%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 25.13% with a coefficient of 3.98. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.87, and for the away team's victory it is 4.66. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.31%, and the away team's victory - 28.69%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Guadalajara's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.75%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.87, while in reality, it should be 1.79.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.87
3.98
4.66
Our calculation
1.79
3.98
5.22
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.87
2024 October
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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