For Fluminense, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Fluminense conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Away
34 Flamengo
2:0
+150
04/10
Home
30 Cruzeiro-MG
1:0
+41
29/09
Away
15 Atletico-GO
0:1
+16
22/09
Home
43 Botafogo-RJ
0:1
+24
15/09
Away
23 Juventude
1:2
+23
02/09
Home
37 Sao Paulo
2:0
+57
25/08
Away
30 Atletico-MG
2:0
+97
18/08
Home
27 Corinthians-SP
0:0
+14
Similarly, for Athletico Paranaense, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Away
27 Corinthians-SP
2:5
+3
05/10
Home
43 Botafogo-RJ
0:1
+31
30/09
Away
34 Flamengo
0:1
+35
23/09
Away
25 Criciuma
0:0
+32
15/09
Home
44 Fortaleza-CE
1:1
+28
02/09
Home
44 Palmeiras
0:2
+4
27/08
Away
32 Vasco da Gama-RJ
1:2
+28
19/08
Home
23 Juventude
1:2
+10
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 422 points to the home team and 172 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Fluminense) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 69.36% of victories for the team Fluminense occurred in home matches. For the team Athletico Paranaense this indicator is 60%. On average, this equates to 64.68%, suggesting a slight advantage for Fluminense all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Fluminense
Fluminense 69.36%
Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense 60%
Average
Average 64.68%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.68% of the home team's points and 35.32% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fluminense with an advantage of 273 points against 61. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 81.76% to 18.24%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.7% with a coefficient of 3.61. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.05, and for the away team's victory it is 4.27. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 67.61%, and the away team's victory - 32.39%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fluminense's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.36%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.05, while in reality, it should be 1.69.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.05
3.61
4.27
Our calculation
1.69
3.61
7.58
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.05
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
Brazil. Serie A
QUANTITY 511
ROI +11.52%
EARNINGS +$5886
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
2024 © betzax.com