For Fenix, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Fenix conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/08
Away
29 Danubio
0:1
+27
27/07
Home
26 Progreso
1:1
+28
21/07
Away
50 Penarol
0:2
+8
14/07
Home
35 Defensor Sporting
1:2
+28
07/07
Home
19 River Plate Montevideo
1:0
+33
22/06
Away
20 Deportivo Maldonado
3:1
+55
16/06
Home
35 Montevideo Wanderers
3:1
+87
08/06
Away
25 Racing Montevideo
1:2
+16
Similarly, for Cerro Largo, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
17/08
Away
50 Penarol
0:0
+61
27/07
Away
23 Miramar Misiones
0:0
+25
20/07
Home
23 Rampla Juniors
0:1
+18
14/07
Away
29 Cerro
1:0
+54
06/07
Home
21 Liverpool Montevideo
1:0
+28
23/06
Home
48 Nacional Montevideo
0:4
+2
17/06
Away
32 Boston River
2:0
+83
09/06
Home
29 Danubio
2:2
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 281 points to the home team and 291 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Fenix) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 48.98% of victories for the team Fenix occurred in home matches. For the team Cerro Largo this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 49.49%, suggesting a slight advantage for Fenix all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Fenix
Fenix 48.98%
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo 50%
Average
Average 49.49%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.49% of the home team's points and 50.51% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Cerro Largo with an advantage of 147 points against 139. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.33% to 48.67%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 31.95% with a coefficient of 3.13. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.77, and for the away team's victory it is 3.12. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 52.94%, and the away team's victory - 47.06%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Cerro Largo's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.27%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.12, while in reality, it should be 2.86.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.77
3.13
3.12
Our calculation
3.02
3.13
2.86
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.12
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