For Emmen, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Emmen conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Away
30 FC Eindhoven
3:0
+157
04/10
Home
22 Maastricht
1:1
+21
29/09
Away
26 Cambuur
3:1
+83
20/09
Away
46 Den Bosch
0:1
+41
16/09
Home
21 Vitesse
3:3
+18
13/09
Home
26 Roda
1:3
+3
30/08
Away
12 Jong Utrecht
2:1
+20
23/08
Home
45 Helmond Sport
0:0
+30
Similarly, for Oss, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Home
30 Telstar
1:1
+26
04/10
Home
30 ADO Den Haag
1:5
+1
27/09
Away
22 Maastricht
2:2
+28
22/09
Home
30 FC Eindhoven
0:4
+1
16/09
Away
45 Helmond Sport
0:1
+44
13/09
Home
23 Jong PSV Eindhoven
0:3
+1
31/08
Away
34 Volendam
0:4
+2
23/08
Home
26 Cambuur
1:0
+30
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 373 points to the home team and 133 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Emmen) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50% of victories for the team Emmen occurred in home matches. For the team Oss this indicator is 58.46%. On average, this equates to 54.23%, suggesting a slight advantage for Emmen all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Emmen
Emmen 50%
Oss
Oss 58.46%
Average
Average 54.23%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.23% of the home team's points and 45.77% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Emmen with an advantage of 202 points against 61. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 76.84% to 23.16%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 16.84% with a coefficient of 5.94. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.38, and for the away team's victory it is 9.31. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 87.09%, and the away team's victory - 12.91%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Oss's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.81%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 9.31, while in reality, it should be 5.19.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.38
5.94
9.31
Our calculation
1.56
5.94
5.19
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
9.31
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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