Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno prediction

Deportivo Recoleta

Match start date: Mar 17, 2025

VS

Tournament: Paraguay. Primera A

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Sportivo Luqueno

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Deportivo Recoleta and Sportivo Luqueno. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Deportivo Recoleta

For Deportivo Recoleta, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Deportivo Recoleta conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

09/03

Away

17 Atletico Tembetary

3:2

+39

01/03

Home

32 Sportivo Ameliano

1:1

+31

22/02

Away

36 Guarani Asuncion

3:1

+122

16/02

Away

29 Cerro Porteno

1:2

+27

09/02

Home

11 Nacional Asuncion

1:0

+14

03/02

Away

55 Libertad

2:5

+5

29/01

Home

20 2 de Mayo

0:2

+2

26/01

Away

29 General Caballero

2:2

+27

Sportivo Luqueno

Similarly, for Sportivo Luqueno, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

11/03

Home

11 Nacional Asuncion

2:1

+16

01/03

Away

55 Libertad

0:3

+5

22/02

Home

20 2 de Mayo

0:0

+19

15/02

Away

29 General Caballero

0:3

+3

10/02

Home

40 Olimpia Asuncion

0:1

+28

02/02

Away

26 Sportivo Trinidense

0:1

+19

30/01

Home

29 Cerro Porteno

1:1

+24

25/01

Home

17 Atletico Tembetary

1:1

+14

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 266 points to the home team and 128 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Deportivo Recoleta) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Deportivo Recoleta 266
Sportivo Luqueno 128

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.29% of victories for the team Deportivo Recoleta occurred in home matches. For the team Sportivo Luqueno this indicator is 57.14%. On average, this equates to 59.22%, suggesting a slight advantage for Deportivo Recoleta all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Deportivo Recoleta

Deportivo Recoleta 61.29%

Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno 57.14%

Average

Average 59.22%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.22% of the home team's points and 40.78% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Deportivo Recoleta with an advantage of 158 points against 52. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.16% to 24.84%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Deportivo Recoleta 158
Sportivo Luqueno 52

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.59% with a coefficient of 3.38. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.45, and for the away team's victory it is 3.38. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 57.94%, and the away team's victory - 42.06%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Deportivo Recoleta 57.94%
Sportivo Luqueno 42.06%

Our calculation

Deportivo Recoleta 75.16%
Sportivo Luqueno 24.84%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Deportivo Recoleta's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.91%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.45, while in reality, it should be 1.89.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.45

3.38

3.38

Our calculation

1.89

3.38

5.72

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

2.45

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1637

ROI +8.94%

EARNINGS +$14630

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

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