For Danubio, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Danubio conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/08
Home
24 Fenix
1:0
+45
28/07
Home
21 Liverpool Montevideo
2:0
+55
22/07
Away
32 Boston River
2:1
+61
13/07
Home
48 Nacional Montevideo
0:6
+2
08/07
Away
23 Miramar Misiones
3:2
+38
22/06
Away
30 Cerro
0:0
+33
16/06
Home
23 Rampla Juniors
2:0
+49
09/06
Away
30 Cerro Largo
2:2
+28
Similarly, for Boston River, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/08
Home
20 Deportivo Maldonado
1:0
+33
28/07
Away
48 Nacional Montevideo
0:1
+49
22/07
Home
29 Danubio
1:2
+22
13/07
Home
23 Miramar Misiones
2:1
+42
06/07
Home
30 Cerro
2:0
+76
23/06
Away
21 Liverpool Montevideo
0:1
+18
17/06
Home
30 Cerro Largo
0:2
+4
11/06
Away
23 Rampla Juniors
1:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 310 points to the home team and 263 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Danubio) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.36% of victories for the team Danubio occurred in home matches. For the team Boston River this indicator is 55.56%. On average, this equates to 55.46%, suggesting a slight advantage for Danubio all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Danubio
Danubio 55.36%
Boston River
Boston River 55.56%
Average
Average 55.46%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.46% of the home team's points and 44.54% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Danubio with an advantage of 172 points against 117. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.45% to 40.55%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 31.15% with a coefficient of 3.21. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.58, and for the away team's victory it is 3.32. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 56.3%, and the away team's victory - 43.7%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Danubio's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.15%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.58, while in reality, it should be 2.44.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.58
3.21
3.32
Our calculation
2.44
3.21
3.58
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.58
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