For Coritiba, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Coritiba conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
04/09
Away
23 Guarani de Campinas
1:2
+27
28/08
Home
34 Avai
1:0
+48
23/08
Away
31 Sport Recife
1:0
+69
18/08
Away
20 Brusque
1:0
+44
11/08
Home
26 Ponte Preta
1:1
+16
03/08
Away
25 Botafogo-SP
0:2
+4
27/07
Home
17 Chapecoense
1:0
+19
23/07
Away
34 Santos
0:4
+2
Similarly, for Novorizontino, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
31/08
Home
34 Vila Nova
2:0
+63
27/08
Away
33 Ceara
0:1
+36
21/08
Home
23 Ituano-SP
1:0
+28
17/08
Home
29 America-MG
1:1
+21
12/08
Away
21 CRB
1:0
+47
05/08
Home
29 Goias
2:1
+32
30/07
Away
26 Paysandu
3:1
+84
24/07
Away
28 Operario Ferroviario
0:0
+32
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 229 points to the home team and 342 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Coritiba) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 65.08% of victories for the team Coritiba occurred in home matches. For the team Novorizontino this indicator is 64.41%. On average, this equates to 64.74%, suggesting a slight advantage for Coritiba all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Coritiba
Coritiba 65.08%
Novorizontino
Novorizontino 64.41%
Average
Average 64.74%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.74% of the home team's points and 35.26% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Coritiba with an advantage of 148 points against 121. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 55.14% to 44.86%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.67% with a coefficient of 3.26. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2, and for the away team's victory it is 5.18. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 72.17%, and the away team's victory - 27.83%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Novorizontino's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.39%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.18, while in reality, it should be 3.22.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2
3.26
5.18
Our calculation
2.62
3.26
3.22
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.18
2024 August
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Brazil. Serie B
QUANTITY 465
ROI +10.49%
EARNINGS +$4880
2024 September
QUANTITY 650
ROI +4.95%
EARNINGS +$3218
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