For Colorado Springs Switchbacks, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Colorado Springs Switchbacks conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
02/09
Away
26 Tulsa Roughnecks
4:1
+181
29/08
Home
36 Memphis 901
3:1
+86
25/08
Home
39 New Mexico United
0:1
+20
18/08
Away
27 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2:2
+35
11/08
Away
28 North Carolina FC
1:4
+3
04/08
Home
29 Phoenix Rising
2:0
+44
27/07
Home
31 Las Vegas Lights
1:1
+21
20/07
Away
47 Louisville City
1:2
+42
Similarly, for Tampa Bay Rowdies, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
25/08
Home
8 Miami FC
2:0
+23
22/08
Home
25 Detroit City
2:3
+19
18/08
Home
31 Loudoun United
0:2
+4
11/08
Away
29 Phoenix Rising
0:0
+38
04/08
Away
18 Monterey Bay
2:2
+22
28/07
Home
42 Charleston Battery
4:2
+88
21/07
Away
33 Indy Eleven
2:0
+95
14/07
Home
18 Orange County SC
2:0
+33
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 432 points to the home team and 322 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Colorado Springs Switchbacks) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 70.31% of victories for the team Colorado Springs Switchbacks occurred in home matches. For the team Tampa Bay Rowdies this indicator is 60.94%. On average, this equates to 65.63%, suggesting a slight advantage for Colorado Springs Switchbacks all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Colorado Springs Switchbacks
Colorado Springs Switchbacks 70.31%
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies 60.94%
Average
Average 65.63%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.63% of the home team's points and 34.37% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Colorado Springs Switchbacks with an advantage of 283 points against 111. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.92% to 28.08%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.25% with a coefficient of 3.67. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.95, and for the away team's victory it is 2.58. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 46.61%, and the away team's victory - 53.39%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Colorado Springs Switchbacks's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 24.96%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.95, while in reality, it should be 1.91.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.95
3.67
2.58
Our calculation
1.91
3.67
4.9
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.95
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
26 August 2024 - 1 September 2024
QUANTITY 278
ROI +22.85%
EARNINGS +$6353
2024 September
QUANTITY 648
ROI +5.27%
EARNINGS +$3418
USA. MLS
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