For Cheltenham Town, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Cheltenham Town conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
23 Colchester United
2:1
+47
12/10
Home
21 Swindon Town
2:3
+15
05/10
Away
33 Barrow
1:2
+32
01/10
Home
23 Accrington Stanley
2:1
+35
28/09
Home
35 Fleetwood Town
0:2
+4
21/09
Away
34 Chesterfield
1:1
+37
14/09
Away
25 Salford City
1:2
+17
07/09
Home
26 Harrogate Town
1:0
+39
Similarly, for Bradford City, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
34 Gillingham
2:1
+59
12/10
Away
26 Tranmere Rovers
2:0
+105
07/10
Home
27 Newport County
3:1
+68
01/10
Away
13 Morecambe
1:1
+15
28/09
Away
26 Harrogate Town
1:2
+20
21/09
Home
39 AFC Wimbledon
0:0
+28
14/09
Away
43 Walsall
1:2
+36
07/09
Home
15 Carlisle United
2:1
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 226 points to the home team and 350 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Cheltenham Town) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.17% of victories for the team Cheltenham Town occurred in home matches. For the team Bradford City this indicator is 55.36%. On average, this equates to 53.77%, suggesting a slight advantage for Cheltenham Town all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town 52.17%
Bradford City
Bradford City 55.36%
Average
Average 53.77%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.77% of the home team's points and 46.23% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bradford City with an advantage of 162 points against 121. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.17% to 42.83%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.88% with a coefficient of 3.72. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.66, and for the away team's victory it is 2.18. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.36%, and the away team's victory - 62.64%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Cheltenham Town's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.08%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.66, while in reality, it should be 3.19.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.66
3.72
2.18
Our calculation
3.19
3.72
2.39
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
3.66
2024 October
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Previous week
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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