For Charlestown Azzurri, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Charlestown Azzurri conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
29/05
Away
26 Maitland
2:2
+26
26/05
Home
9 Adamstown Rosebud
4:0
+54
19/05
Away
13 New Lambton
1:0
+22
12/05
Home
31 Valentine Phoenix
3:0
+157
28/04
Home
56 Broadmeadow Magic
2:0
+154
21/04
Home
61 Lambton Jaffas
1:2
+47
14/04
Away
39 Newcastle Olympic
1:3
+5
07/04
Home
28 Weston Workers
1:3
+3
Similarly, for Cooks Hill United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
12/06
Home
13 New Lambton
1:2
+13
07/06
Home
6 Lake Macquarie City
4:1
+29
31/05
Away
56 Broadmeadow Magic
2:5
+5
25/05
Home
61 Lambton Jaffas
2:3
+52
19/05
Away
39 Newcastle Olympic
1:1
+35
12/05
Away
28 Weston Workers
2:1
+41
04/05
Home
43 Edgeworth Eagles
0:2
+5
27/04
Away
26 Maitland
2:2
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 468 points to the home team and 200 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Charlestown Azzurri) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 49.23% of victories for the team Charlestown Azzurri occurred in home matches. For the team Cooks Hill United this indicator is 47.06%. On average, this equates to 48.15%, suggesting a slight advantage for Charlestown Azzurri all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Charlestown Azzurri
Charlestown Azzurri 49.23%
Cooks Hill United
Cooks Hill United 47.06%
Average
Average 48.15%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 48.15% of the home team's points and 51.86% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Charlestown Azzurri with an advantage of 225 points against 104. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 68.47% to 31.53%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.08% with a coefficient of 5.53. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.48, and for the away team's victory it is 6.91. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 82.35%, and the away team's victory - 17.66%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Cooks Hill United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.4%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.91, while in reality, it should be 3.87.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.48
5.53
6.91
Our calculation
1.78
5.53
3.87
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
6.91
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
3 June 2024 - 9 June 2024
QUANTITY 206
ROI +55.99%
EARNINGS +$11534
16 June 2024
QUANTITY 85
ROI +3.91%
EARNINGS +$332
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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