For Castellon, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Castellon conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Home
32 Levante
2:0
+90
14/10
Away
32 Sporting Gijon
1:2
+34
06/10
Away
25 Eldense
3:2
+49
29/09
Home
12 Tenerife
2:1
+15
22/09
Home
47 Racing Santander
0:1
+26
16/09
Away
26 Almeria
5:2
+125
09/09
Home
22 Cadiz
1:3
+2
01/09
Away
30 Burgos
2:0
+92
Similarly, for Granada, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
12 Tenerife
4:0
+45
13/10
Home
26 Cordoba
1:0
+35
05/10
Away
37 Mirandes
1:0
+90
29/09
Away
30 Burgos
2:2
+40
20/09
Home
28 Malaga
2:2
+18
15/09
Away
30 Elche
2:2
+35
07/09
Home
22 Deportivo de la Coruna
1:1
+13
30/08
Home
37 Huesca
1:3
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 433 points to the home team and 280 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Castellon) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.25% of victories for the team Castellon occurred in home matches. For the team Granada this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 61.46%, suggesting a slight advantage for Castellon all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Castellon
Castellon 56.25%
Granada
Granada 66.67%
Average
Average 61.46%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.46% of the home team's points and 38.54% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Castellon with an advantage of 266 points against 108. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 71.16% to 28.84%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.74% with a coefficient of 3.74. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.46, and for the away team's victory it is 3.07. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 55.53%, and the away team's victory - 44.47%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Castellon's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.78%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.46, while in reality, it should be 1.92.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.46
3.74
3.07
Our calculation
1.92
3.74
4.73
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.46
2024 October
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ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
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ROI +1.18%
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Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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