Castellon vs Deportivo de la Coruna prediction

Castellon

Match start date: Mar 17, 2025

VS

Tournament: Spain. Segunda Division

Place a bet

Deportivo de la Coruna

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Castellon and Deportivo de la Coruna. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Castellon

For Castellon, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Castellon conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

42 Elche

1:3

+8

01/03

Home

27 Burgos

2:1

+41

23/02

Away

37 Cadiz

0:0

+42

15/02

Home

25 Eibar

2:0

+59

08/02

Away

14 Racing Ferrol

3:1

+43

02/02

Home

36 Huesca

0:1

+26

26/01

Away

34 Real Oviedo

0:1

+28

19/01

Home

34 Cordoba

1:2

+19

Deportivo de la Coruna

Similarly, for Deportivo de la Coruna, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

07/03

Home

34 Cordoba

1:1

+34

02/03

Away

34 Real Oviedo

2:1

+74

23/02

Home

36 Huesca

0:0

+38

16/02

Away

25 Eldense

0:2

+4

09/02

Home

38 Almeria

3:1

+103

02/02

Away

25 Eibar

1:0

+46

29/01

Away

18 Tenerife

0:0

+19

25/01

Home

41 Levante

1:2

+22

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 266 points to the home team and 339 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Castellon) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Castellon 266
Deportivo de la Coruna 339

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.03% of victories for the team Castellon occurred in home matches. For the team Deportivo de la Coruna this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 51.52%, suggesting a slight advantage for Castellon all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Castellon

Castellon 53.03%

Deportivo de la Coruna

Deportivo de la Coruna 50%

Average

Average 51.52%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.52% of the home team's points and 48.49% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Deportivo de la Coruna with an advantage of 164 points against 137. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.5% to 45.5%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Castellon 137
Deportivo de la Coruna 164

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.53% with a coefficient of 3.77. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.31, and for the away team's victory it is 3.31. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.91%, and the away team's victory - 41.09%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Castellon 58.91%
Deportivo de la Coruna 41.09%

Our calculation

Castellon 45.5%
Deportivo de la Coruna 54.5%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Deportivo de la Coruna's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.41%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.31, while in reality, it should be 2.5.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.31

3.77

3.31

Our calculation

2.99

3.77

2.5

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.

Away Win

3.31

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1637

ROI +8.94%

EARNINGS +$14630

Previous week

QUANTITY 620

ROI +13.84%

EARNINGS +$8583

Current football predictions

France. Ligue 1

16/03

Montpellier - Saint-Etienne

TOP

Home Win

2.44

Israel. Liga Leumit

20:00

Hapoel Rishon LeZion - Hapoel Nof HaGalil

Home Win

2.27

20:00

Hapoel Kfar Saba - Kafr Qasem

Home Win

3.37

Italy. Serie C. Group B

22:30

Virtus Entella - Sestri Levante

Away Win

14.15

Spain. Segunda Division

22:30

Castellon - Deportivo de la Coruna

TOP

Away Win

3.31

Argentina. Primera Division

18/03

Union de Santa Fe - Banfield

Away Win

4.7

18/03

Tigre - Central Cordoba

TOP

Home Win

2.35

18/03

San Martin San Juan - Atletico Platense

TOP

Home Win

2.96

18/03

Atletico Tucuman - Velez Sarsfield

Home Win

2.54

Paraguay. Primera A

18/03

Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense

TOP

Away Win

3.6