For Castellon, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Castellon conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/03
Away
42 Elche
1:3
+8
01/03
Home
27 Burgos
2:1
+41
23/02
Away
37 Cadiz
0:0
+42
15/02
Home
25 Eibar
2:0
+59
08/02
Away
14 Racing Ferrol
3:1
+43
02/02
Home
36 Huesca
0:1
+26
26/01
Away
34 Real Oviedo
0:1
+28
19/01
Home
34 Cordoba
1:2
+19
Similarly, for Deportivo de la Coruna, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
07/03
Home
34 Cordoba
1:1
+34
02/03
Away
34 Real Oviedo
2:1
+74
23/02
Home
36 Huesca
0:0
+38
16/02
Away
25 Eldense
0:2
+4
09/02
Home
38 Almeria
3:1
+103
02/02
Away
25 Eibar
1:0
+46
29/01
Away
18 Tenerife
0:0
+19
25/01
Home
41 Levante
1:2
+22
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 266 points to the home team and 339 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Castellon) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.03% of victories for the team Castellon occurred in home matches. For the team Deportivo de la Coruna this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 51.52%, suggesting a slight advantage for Castellon all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Castellon
Castellon 53.03%
Deportivo de la Coruna
Deportivo de la Coruna 50%
Average
Average 51.52%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.52% of the home team's points and 48.49% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Deportivo de la Coruna with an advantage of 164 points against 137. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.5% to 45.5%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.53% with a coefficient of 3.77. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.31, and for the away team's victory it is 3.31. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.91%, and the away team's victory - 41.09%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Deportivo de la Coruna's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.41%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.31, while in reality, it should be 2.5.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.31
3.77
3.31
Our calculation
2.99
3.77
2.5
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.31
2025 February
QUANTITY 2259
ROI +13.41%
EARNINGS +$30296
2025 March
QUANTITY 1637
ROI +8.94%
EARNINGS +$14630
Previous week
QUANTITY 620
ROI +13.84%
EARNINGS +$8583
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