For Birmingham City, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Birmingham City conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
38 Lincoln City
3:1
+126
05/10
Away
32 Charlton Athletic
0:1
+31
01/10
Home
36 Huddersfield Town
1:0
+54
28/09
Home
27 Peterborough United
3:2
+40
21/09
Away
24 Rotherham United
2:0
+84
16/09
Home
45 Wrexham
3:1
+90
31/08
Home
27 Wigan Athletic
2:1
+31
24/08
Away
17 Leyton Orient
2:1
+25
Similarly, for Bolton Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
10 Burton Albion
2:1
+18
05/10
Home
16 Shrewsbury Town
2:2
+16
01/10
Away
23 Northampton Town
4:2
+75
28/09
Away
14 Crawley Town
2:0
+42
21/09
Home
35 Reading
5:2
+125
14/09
Home
36 Huddersfield Town
0:4
+1
31/08
Home
40 Exeter City
0:2
+5
24/08
Away
32 Charlton Athletic
0:2
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 482 points to the home team and 287 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Birmingham City) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.06% of victories for the team Birmingham City occurred in home matches. For the team Bolton Wanderers this indicator is 50.82%. On average, this equates to 53.44%, suggesting a slight advantage for Birmingham City all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Birmingham City
Birmingham City 56.06%
Bolton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers 50.82%
Average
Average 53.44%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.44% of the home team's points and 46.56% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Birmingham City with an advantage of 258 points against 134. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 65.84% to 34.16%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.1% with a coefficient of 4.15. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.86, and for the away team's victory it is 4.53. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 70.96%, and the away team's victory - 29.04%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Bolton Wanderers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.39%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.53, while in reality, it should be 3.86.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.86
4.15
4.53
Our calculation
2
4.15
3.86
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.53
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