For Barrow, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Barrow conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/10
Away
23 Accrington Stanley
0:1
+24
12/10
Home
13 Morecambe
0:1
+9
05/10
Home
22 Cheltenham Town
2:1
+33
01/10
Away
40 Doncaster Rovers
0:1
+40
28/09
Away
34 Gillingham
0:2
+6
21/09
Home
27 Newport County
2:0
+58
14/09
Away
30 Grimsby Town
2:1
+56
07/09
Home
21 Swindon Town
1:1
+12
Similarly, for Notts County, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/10
Home
39 AFC Wimbledon
1:0
+64
12/10
Away
34 Chesterfield
2:2
+40
05/10
Home
42 Port Vale
0:1
+35
01/10
Away
15 Carlisle United
2:0
+43
28/09
Away
13 Morecambe
1:1
+13
21/09
Home
34 Gillingham
0:1
+22
14/09
Away
21 Bromley
4:2
+56
07/09
Home
23 Accrington Stanley
2:0
+50
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 237 points to the home team and 323 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Barrow) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.93% of victories for the team Barrow occurred in home matches. For the team Notts County this indicator is 49.23%. On average, this equates to 56.58%, suggesting a slight advantage for Barrow all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Barrow
Barrow 63.93%
Notts County
Notts County 49.23%
Average
Average 56.58%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.58% of the home team's points and 43.42% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Notts County with an advantage of 140 points against 134. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.08% to 48.92%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.17% with a coefficient of 3.68. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.57, and for the away team's victory it is 2.95. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 53.49%, and the away team's victory - 46.51%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Notts County's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.57%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.95, while in reality, it should be 2.69.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.57
3.68
2.95
Our calculation
2.81
3.68
2.69
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.95
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
2024 © betzax.com