Augsburg vs Wolfsburg prediction

Augsburg

Match start date: Mar 15, 2025

VS

Tournament: Germany. Bundesliga

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Wolfsburg

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Augsburg and Wolfsburg. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Augsburg

For Augsburg, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Augsburg conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

08/03

Away

27 Borussia Dortmund

1:0

+68

02/03

Home

34 Freiburg

0:0

+27

22/02

Away

34 Borussia Monchengladbach

3:0

+218

14/02

Home

31 RB Leipzig

0:0

+21

08/02

Away

43 Mainz 05

0:0

+53

01/02

Away

20 St Pauli

1:1

+23

25/01

Home

9 Heidenheim

2:1

+9

19/01

Away

27 Werder Bremen

2:0

+79

Wolfsburg

Similarly, for Wolfsburg, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

08/03

Home

20 St Pauli

1:1

+22

01/03

Away

27 Werder Bremen

2:1

+54

22/02

Home

19 Bochum

1:1

+15

15/02

Away

31 Stuttgart

2:1

+60

08/02

Home

46 Bayer 04 Leverkusen

0:0

+39

02/02

Away

33 Eintracht Frankfurt

1:1

+34

24/01

Home

18 Holstein Kiel

2:2

+16

18/01

Away

53 Bayern Munich

2:3

+40

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 497 points to the home team and 278 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Augsburg) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Augsburg 497
Wolfsburg 278

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.74% of victories for the team Augsburg occurred in home matches. For the team Wolfsburg this indicator is 54.24%. On average, this equates to 60.99%, suggesting a slight advantage for Augsburg all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Augsburg

Augsburg 67.74%

Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg 54.24%

Average

Average 60.99%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60.99% of the home team's points and 39.01% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Augsburg with an advantage of 303 points against 109. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.65% to 26.35%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Augsburg 303
Wolfsburg 109

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.41% with a coefficient of 3.4. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.84, and for the away team's victory it is 2.82. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 49.82%, and the away team's victory - 50.19%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Augsburg 49.82%
Wolfsburg 50.19%

Our calculation

Augsburg 73.65%
Wolfsburg 26.35%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Augsburg's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 21.98%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.84, while in reality, it should be 1.92.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

2.84

3.4

2.82

Our calculation

1.92

3.4

5.38

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

2.84

Our prediction statistics

2025 February

QUANTITY 2259

ROI +13.41%

EARNINGS +$30296

2025 March

QUANTITY 1243

ROI +7.66%

EARNINGS +$9523

Previous week

QUANTITY 609

ROI +11.65%

EARNINGS +$7095

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