For Alianza Lima, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Alianza Lima conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
18/10
Away
21 UTC Cajamarca
1:0
+55
29/09
Home
40 Melgar
1:1
+32
22/09
Away
21 Sport Boys
3:0
+139
18/09
Away
39 Atletico Grau
0:1
+41
15/09
Home
16 Carlos A. Mannucci
1:0
+20
24/08
Away
22 Los Chankas
1:0
+47
21/08
Home
30 Cienciano
3:0
+87
18/08
Away
40 Sporting Cristal
0:0
+43
Similarly, for Sport Huancayo, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
18/10
Home
39 Atletico Grau
1:3
+3
29/09
Away
16 Carlos A. Mannucci
2:1
+43
24/09
Home
22 Los Chankas
3:1
+26
19/09
Away
30 Cienciano
1:3
+6
14/09
Home
40 Sporting Cristal
1:2
+16
25/08
Away
24 ADT
1:2
+27
20/08
Home
17 Comerciantes Unidos
2:2
+9
17/08
Away
13 Union Comercio
1:0
+27
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 465 points to the home team and 157 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Alianza Lima) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.29% of victories for the team Alianza Lima occurred in home matches. For the team Sport Huancayo this indicator is 75%. On average, this equates to 68.15%, suggesting a slight advantage for Alianza Lima all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima 61.29%
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo 75%
Average
Average 68.15%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 68.15% of the home team's points and 31.86% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Alianza Lima with an advantage of 317 points against 50. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 86.36% to 13.64%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 14.95% with a coefficient of 6.69. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.25, and for the away team's victory it is 18.73. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 93.72%, and the away team's victory - 6.28%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sport Huancayo's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7.18%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 18.73, while in reality, it should be 8.62.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.25
6.69
18.73
Our calculation
1.36
6.69
8.62
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
18.73
2024 October
QUANTITY 1723
ROI +13.61%
EARNINGS +$23442
Previous week
QUANTITY 742
ROI +12.44%
EARNINGS +$9229
2024 September
QUANTITY 1553
ROI +1.18%
EARNINGS +$1831
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie
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