For Tyumen, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tyumen conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
03/11
Away
32 Chaika Peschanokopskoe
0:3
+3
26/10
Home
29 Yenisey
4:1
+109
21/10
Home
42 Torpedo Moscow
0:3
+3
12/10
Away
34 Ural
0:1
+33
05/10
Home
25 KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny
1:1
+19
29/09
Away
27 SKA-Khabarovsk
1:2
+26
21/09
Home
26 Rodina
1:2
+18
15/09
Home
23 Sokol Saratov
0:1
+14
Similarly, for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
03/11
Home
23 Shinnik
0:1
+16
26/10
Away
27 SKA-Khabarovsk
1:6
+2
19/10
Home
28 Neftekhimik
0:0
+25
12/10
Away
22 Ufa
3:0
+131
06/10
Away
22 Alaniya
0:2
+4
29/09
Home
23 Sokol Saratov
3:0
+92
20/09
Away
27 Rotor Volgograd
2:1
+44
14/09
Home
29 Yenisey
2:1
+30
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 225 points to the home team and 344 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tyumen) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.67% of victories for the team Tyumen occurred in home matches. For the team Chernomorets Novorossiysk this indicator is 58.62%. On average, this equates to 57.64%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tyumen all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tyumen
Tyumen 56.67%
Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 58.62%
Average
Average 57.64%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.64% of the home team's points and 42.36% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chernomorets Novorossiysk with an advantage of 146 points against 130. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.85% to 47.15%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.41% with a coefficient of 3.4. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.32, and for the away team's victory it is 2.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 42.7%, and the away team's victory - 57.3%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tyumen's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.18%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.32, while in reality, it should be 3.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.32
3.4
2.47
Our calculation
3
3.4
2.68
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.32
2024 October
QUANTITY 2852
ROI +7.78%
EARNINGS +$22186
9 November 2024
QUANTITY 367
ROI +6.56%
EARNINGS +$2406
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