Tyumen vs Chernomorets Novorossiysk prediction

Tyumen

Match start date: Nov 10, 2024

VS

Tournament: Russia. 1st League

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Chernomorets Novorossiysk

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Tyumen and Chernomorets Novorossiysk. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Tyumen

For Tyumen, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tyumen conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

03/11

Away

32 Chaika Peschanokopskoe

0:3

+3

26/10

Home

29 Yenisey

4:1

+109

21/10

Home

42 Torpedo Moscow

0:3

+3

12/10

Away

34 Ural

0:1

+33

05/10

Home

25 KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny

1:1

+19

29/09

Away

27 SKA-Khabarovsk

1:2

+26

21/09

Home

26 Rodina

1:2

+18

15/09

Home

23 Sokol Saratov

0:1

+14

Chernomorets Novorossiysk

Similarly, for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

03/11

Home

23 Shinnik

0:1

+16

26/10

Away

27 SKA-Khabarovsk

1:6

+2

19/10

Home

28 Neftekhimik

0:0

+25

12/10

Away

22 Ufa

3:0

+131

06/10

Away

22 Alaniya

0:2

+4

29/09

Home

23 Sokol Saratov

3:0

+92

20/09

Away

27 Rotor Volgograd

2:1

+44

14/09

Home

29 Yenisey

2:1

+30

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 225 points to the home team and 344 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tyumen) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Tyumen 225
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 344

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.67% of victories for the team Tyumen occurred in home matches. For the team Chernomorets Novorossiysk this indicator is 58.62%. On average, this equates to 57.64%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tyumen all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Tyumen

Tyumen 56.67%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk

Chernomorets Novorossiysk 58.62%

Average

Average 57.64%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.64% of the home team's points and 42.36% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chernomorets Novorossiysk with an advantage of 146 points against 130. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.85% to 47.15%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Tyumen 130
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 146

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.41% with a coefficient of 3.4. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.32, and for the away team's victory it is 2.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 42.7%, and the away team's victory - 57.3%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Tyumen 42.7%
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 57.3%

Our calculation

Tyumen 47.15%
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 52.85%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tyumen's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.18%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.32, while in reality, it should be 3.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

3.32

3.4

2.47

Our calculation

3

3.4

2.68

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

3.32

Our prediction statistics

2024 October

QUANTITY 2852

ROI +7.78%

EARNINGS +$22186

9 November 2024

QUANTITY 367

ROI +6.56%

EARNINGS +$2406

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