Grenoble vs SC Bastia prediction

Grenoble

Match start date: Jan 3, 2025

VS

Tournament: France. Ligue 2

Place a bet

SC Bastia

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Grenoble and SC Bastia. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

Grenoble

For Grenoble, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Grenoble conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

14/12

Away

24 Red Star

1:3

+5

07/12

Home

31 Amiens SC

0:2

+4

22/11

Away

25 Troyes

0:0

+32

08/11

Home

40 Dunkerque

0:1

+28

02/11

Away

34 Guingamp

0:3

+3

29/10

Home

37 Annecy

0:0

+25

26/10

Away

41 Paris FC

1:2

+35

18/10

Home

38 Metz

2:0

+78

SC Bastia

Similarly, for SC Bastia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

13/12

Home

34 Guingamp

3:1

+98

06/12

Away

24 Red Star

0:0

+31

03/12

Away

20 Ajaccio

0:0

+30

23/11

Home

44 Lorient

0:0

+31

08/11

Away

34 Laval

2:2

+36

02/11

Away

21 Caen

0:2

+3

29/10

Home

28 Rodez

2:2

+20

22/10

Away

29 Pau

1:1

+28

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 209 points to the home team and 278 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Grenoble) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

Accumulated points

Grenoble 209
SC Bastia 278

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.1% of victories for the team Grenoble occurred in home matches. For the team SC Bastia this indicator is 65.46%. On average, this equates to 65.78%, suggesting a slight advantage for Grenoble all other things being equal.

Percentage of home wins by teams

Grenoble

Grenoble 66.1%

SC Bastia

SC Bastia 65.46%

Average

Average 65.78%

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.78% of the home team's points and 34.22% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Grenoble with an advantage of 138 points against 95. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.13% to 40.87%.

Points earned with home win percentage

Grenoble 138
SC Bastia 95

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 33.33% with a coefficient of 3. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.01, and for the away team's victory it is 2.4. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.4%, and the away team's victory - 62.6%. This differs from our calculations.

Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers

Bookmakers

Grenoble 37.4%
SC Bastia 62.6%

Our calculation

Grenoble 59.13%
SC Bastia 40.87%

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Grenoble's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.01, while in reality, it should be 2.54.

Comparison with bookmakers odds

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

Bookmakers

4.01

3

2.4

Our calculation

2.54

3

3.67

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.

Home Win

4.01

Our prediction statistics

2024 December

QUANTITY 2250

ROI +3.69%

EARNINGS +$8294

France. Ligue 2

QUANTITY 562

ROI +5.34%

EARNINGS +$3002

23 December 2024 - 29 December 2024

QUANTITY 262

ROI +8.11%

EARNINGS +$2124

Current football predictions

Turkey. Super Lig

13:30

Kasimpasa - Gazisehir Gaziantep

Away Win

4.22

16:00

Bodrumspor - Kayserispor

Home Win

2.16

Italy. Serie A

14:30

Monza - Cagliari

Away Win

3.18

17:00

Lecce - Genoa

TOP

Away Win

3.05

Greece. Super League

16:00

Levadiakos - Panserraikos

TOP

Away Win

4.14

South Africa. Premier League

16:30

Polokwane City - Sekhukhune United

Home Win

2.63

England. Premier League

17:00

Fulham - Ipswich Town

Away Win

6.01

France. Ligue 1

17:00

Strasbourg - Auxerre

Away Win

4.62

17:00

Lens - Toulouse

TOP

Away Win

4.15

17:00

Angers - Brest

TOP

Home Win

3.49