For Grenoble, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Grenoble conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/12
Away
24 Red Star
1:3
+5
07/12
Home
31 Amiens SC
0:2
+4
22/11
Away
25 Troyes
0:0
+32
08/11
Home
40 Dunkerque
0:1
+28
02/11
Away
34 Guingamp
0:3
+3
29/10
Home
37 Annecy
0:0
+25
26/10
Away
41 Paris FC
1:2
+35
18/10
Home
38 Metz
2:0
+78
Similarly, for SC Bastia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/12
Home
34 Guingamp
3:1
+98
06/12
Away
24 Red Star
0:0
+31
03/12
Away
20 Ajaccio
0:0
+30
23/11
Home
44 Lorient
0:0
+31
08/11
Away
34 Laval
2:2
+36
02/11
Away
21 Caen
0:2
+3
29/10
Home
28 Rodez
2:2
+20
22/10
Away
29 Pau
1:1
+28
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 209 points to the home team and 278 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Grenoble) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 66.1% of victories for the team Grenoble occurred in home matches. For the team SC Bastia this indicator is 65.46%. On average, this equates to 65.78%, suggesting a slight advantage for Grenoble all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Grenoble
Grenoble 66.1%
SC Bastia
SC Bastia 65.46%
Average
Average 65.78%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.78% of the home team's points and 34.22% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Grenoble with an advantage of 138 points against 95. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.13% to 40.87%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 33.33% with a coefficient of 3. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.01, and for the away team's victory it is 2.4. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.4%, and the away team's victory - 62.6%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Grenoble's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.01, while in reality, it should be 2.54.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.01
3
2.4
Our calculation
2.54
3
3.67
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.01
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