For Sogndal, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Sogndal conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
29 Ranheim
0:3
+3
22/06
Home
36 Kongsvinger
2:0
+107
16/06
Away
32 Lyn
2:1
+64
09/06
Home
37 Egersund
2:2
+35
01/06
Home
35 Stabaek
2:3
+22
28/05
Away
18 Start
1:2
+17
22/05
Home
27 Raufoss
1:1
+22
16/05
Away
15 Aalesund
2:0
+41
Similarly, for Start, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
44 Valerenga
1:2
+31
23/06
Away
27 Raufoss
1:2
+29
16/06
Home
35 Stabaek
4:3
+38
09/06
Home
32 Lyn
1:4
+2
01/06
Away
29 Levanger
1:1
+35
28/05
Home
33 Sogndal
2:1
+36
21/05
Away
41 Moss
1:2
+37
16/05
Home
37 Egersund
4:3
+41
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 311 points to the home team and 249 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Sogndal) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.93% of victories for the team Sogndal occurred in home matches. For the team Start this indicator is 74.58%. On average, this equates to 65.25%, suggesting a slight advantage for Sogndal all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Sogndal
Sogndal 55.93%
Start
Start 74.58%
Average
Average 65.25%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.25% of the home team's points and 34.75% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sogndal with an advantage of 203 points against 86. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 70.12% to 29.88%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.03% with a coefficient of 4.54. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.74, and for the away team's victory it is 4.86. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 73.63%, and the away team's victory - 26.38%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Start's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.17%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.86, while in reality, it should be 4.29.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.74
4.54
4.86
Our calculation
1.83
4.54
4.29
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.86
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